The dockworker strike exposed an aging-workforce issue

By Joseph Coughlin

Port strike's perfect storm: An aging workforce, automation and the next-generation labor crisis

The strike of nearly 45,000 dockworkers from the East Coast through the Gulf of Mexico paralyzed the supply chains that deliver everything from bananas to big-ticket items like automobiles.

The work stoppage - now paused until Jan. 15 - was estimated to cost the U.S. economy a whopping $5 billion a day and give the nation's GDP a bit of a haircut, according to J.P. Morgan.

Read: Dockworkers union agrees to suspend port strike until Jan. 15 to provide time to negotiate new contract

However, the strike headlined obscured underlying fundamental sociotechnical trends on a collision course in the workplace. The strike was about more than the fragility of supply chains, markets and the economics of global trade; it was a high-profile example of the converging impacts of an aging workforce, how the next-generation workforce views work and automation.

And that's not going away.

While we tend to focus on pay, automation and union-industry conflicts as the key issues facing shaping the ports dispute today, another global trend is at play - the aging workforce.

According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve report, titled "We're Getting Older, and the Labor Market Shows It," the number of workers between ages 25 to 54 has barely increased since 2019, while the population of those 65 and older has jumped by nearly 5 million. This demographic shift is reshaping every industry, and dockworkers and all those up and down the supply chain are not immune. The U.S. Department of Transportation, for example, reports that as of 2019, nearly one in four transportation and warehousing workers were over 55 years old.

Dockworkers perform some of the most physically demanding work found in any industry, and nearly half of those working today are over 50 years old. While many casual observers might consider 50 simply the high point of a midlife crisis, they fail to fully appreciate the vast physical demands differentiating a 50-year-old worker driving a keyboard under the heat of office fluorescent lights versus a dockworker slinging breakbulk cargo or grounding and loading a 20-foot-long, 50,000-pound ISO container in all types of weather.

As more longshoremen near retirement age, which, given the physical demands, comes earlier for many dockworkers than for office workers, both the union's and industry's attempts to bring in younger talent may face a different type of supply-chain jam - a shortage of young workers to replace retirees.

Shortly after the pandemic, there was a trend of more young Gen Z adults, ages 20 to 24, seeking work in the trades and other professions often described as blue-collar work. However, an August 2024 report by ADP indicates that the trend may have reached a peak and has now, as the report suggests, "plateaued." Despite recruiting campaigns highlighting the high pay and stability of a career longshoreman, the reality of unpredictable hours, back-breaking work and limited flexibility working on the nation's docks is unlikely to resonate with a younger generation that prioritizes work-life balance and remote work options - often over lucrative pay.

These demographic and generational shifts come as port operators look to automation to increase efficiency and reduce dependence on human labor, further exacerbating the labor crisis. As the strike spotlighted, unions fiercely resist these changes, seeing automation as an existential threat to jobs. But even if the unions succeed in slowing the march of machines, they face a stark reality: fewer younger workers and perhaps fewer of those who want to work on the docks.

The U.S. has a marginal demographic dividend of more younger people than other industrial countries and many of its trade partners. As countries grapple with aging populations and shrinking pools of younger workers, many have little choice but to turn to automation to address labor shortfalls that may be happening today or are in the foreseeable future.

The Port of Rotterdam, Europe's largest port, has reported a shortfall of 8,000 workers. In China, major ports like Shanghai have ramped up automation efforts to maintain competitiveness as the nation's working-age population declines. Likewise, Japan is addressing land-side port needs by planning a 311-mile automated conveyor belt between Tokyo and Osaka to operate 24/7, delivering the same volume of cargo that would require 25,000 truck drivers - drivers that Japan does not have.

Automated cranes, autonomous vehicles and advanced robotics are being implemented in those regions to mitigate the effects of workforce decline. This trend reflects a broader workforce shift, where automation is not just seen as a tool for increasing productivity but as a necessity for dealing with demographic challenges that are unfolding globally and threaten the sustainability of traditional labor-intensive operations.

Ultimately, the port strike in the U.S. is emblematic of broader shifts in the American workforce and the integration of technology in the workplace. As older generations retire and younger ones seek more flexible, technology-driven careers, traditional industries must adapt or be left behind.

Unlike economics or technology, demography is destiny, and this most recent port strike is just the latest high-profile example of how industry and workers are struggling to adapt to a new, evolving equilibrium.

-Joseph Coughlin

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10-04-24 1203ET

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