Kamala Harris buoyed by jobs report, inflation numbers with election a month away

By Robert Schroeder

Trump campaign blasts lost manufacturing jobs

Friday's robust jobs report for September landed with about a month until Election Day - and the better-than-expected data could turn out to be a boon for Vice President Kamala Harris's presidential campaign.

The U.S. economy created 254,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate fell a notch to 4.1% from 4.2% - the second month in a row it has fallen.

Live coverage: September jobs report: Payrolls rise 254,000 as unemployment rate slips to 4.1%

"On the margin, good news is good news for the Harris campaign," Ed Mills, managing director and Washington policy analyst at Raymond James, told MarketWatch.

October's jobs numbers may not be nearly as strong, for a variety of reasons. Yet the drop in the unemployment rate and strong job creation last month gave Harris an answer to former President Donald Trump's charge in their September debate.

"They've had three-and-a-half years to create jobs and all the things we talked about," Trump said, referring to Harris and President Joe Biden. "Why hasn't she done it?"

Harris's campaign seized on the jobs figures and highlighted them on social media on Friday, while the Trump campaign blasted back-to-back monthly losses of manufacturing jobs and what it called Harris's "weak economic policies."

Recent economic data, however, have been positive, with growth expanding and a key measure of inflation slowing.

The latest update on U.S. growth in the second quarter showed the economy expanded at solid 3.0% annual pace. A similar figure is expected for the third quarter.

The latest reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred personal-consumption expenditures index showed the increase in inflation in the past 12 months slipping to 2.2% from 2.5%. That was the lowest level since early 2021.

A new survey from the Cook Political Report shows Harris improving against Trump among voters on who they believe will get inflation under control. Trump's 6-percentage-point lead from August "has evaporated," the authors wrote, explaining a few explanations for the shift.

"The first is that Harris's message on the economy has broken through. Since kicking off her campaign two months ago, Harris has honed in on an 'affordability' message that stresses reducing the costs of pharmaceutical drugs, cracking down on price gouging and promoting affordable housing," said the Cook survey.

While Friday's report may augur well for Harris, there is one more jobs report scheduled before the election, on Nov. 1 - and that could come in weaker for a few reasons.

"An ongoing strike at Boeing (BA), the lingering impact of Hurricane Helene on job creation in affected regions and pre-election uncertainty could muddy the reading to be published on Nov. 1," said BNP Paribas analysts in a note.

As MarketWatch's Jeffry Bartash reported, Friday's jobs report might not have been as good as it seemed. The government's initial count of how many new jobs are being created each month has been less accurate than usual over the past year, he noted.

Still, according to Raymond James's Mills, the trajectory of jobs during the Biden administration has been "pretty substantial."

"The Harris campaign is going to do everything they can to capitalize on that," he said.

-Robert Schroeder

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10-04-24 1533ET

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