U.S. stocks' remarkable 2024 run is likely to continue during the fourth quarter, history shows

By Joseph Adinolfi

The S&P 500 has risen on average more than 2% during the fourth quarter in years when it rose 20% or more during the first nine months

U.S. stocks have had a remarkable run during the first nine months of 2024 - and if the past is any guide, it will likely continue over the next three months.

Dow Jones Market Data crunched the numbers and found that the S&P 500 index typically continued to climb during the fourth quarter after rising 20% or more during the first nine months of the year.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 SPX has achieved a 20% increase during the first nine months of a year 10 times, including in 2024. In the nine previous instances, the index rose, on average, 2.1% in the fourth quarter. Its median return was even higher, at 4.1%. It continued to climb during the fourth quarter more than 77% of the time.

Notably, one of the two years when the index struggled in the fourth quarter was 1987, when the "Black Monday" selloff hit in October. The index still managed to eke out a gain that year, rising 2%.

Similar patterns apply to other stock-market barometers, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA and the Nasdaq Composite COMP.

There have been 29 instances since 1950 when the Dow rose 10% or more during the first nine months of the year, including 2024. During all but six of those years, the blue-chip average continued to climb in the fourth quarter, with a median gain of 4.9%.

The Nasdaq Composite has risen more than 20% during the first nine months of the year on 19 occasions, including this year. In all but five instances it continued to climb, with a median gain of 6.6%, during the fourth quarter.

U.S. stocks were trading lower on Thursday, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average all headed for a weekly loss for the first time in a month, according to FactSet data.

If the index can hold on to its 20% year-to-date gain, the S&P 500 would log its first back-to-back calendar-year advances since 1998, Dow Jones data show.

See: Stocks head toward something that hasn't happened since the days of the dot-com bubble

Ken Jimenez contributed.

-Joseph Adinolfi

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

10-03-24 1320ET

Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.