AXA Earnings: Good Quarter One Divisional Results

AXA CS has reported activity indicators for the first quarter of 2023. The outlook for the earnings of the business under IFRS 17 is notably lower, though this still oscillates around our forecast. Because of the removal of the prior-year development within the property and casualty segment at transition because of the discounting impact, and the change in equity fair values that will no longer run through profit or loss, comparable net income for full-year 2022 came in at EUR 5.1 billion versus our EUR 5.3 billion full-year 2023 forecast. This means that under the new accounting standard AXA generated a return on equity of 11%. We maintain our fair value estimate of EUR 29.8 and our rating of no economic moat.

At 217%, solvency remains good with operating capital generation of 7% during the first quarter. We think operating capital generation is around EUR 6.5 billion normalised annual, give or take EUR 100 million. That means distributions are likely around three quarters covered.