10-year Treasury yield surpasses 4% for first time in months on brighter economic picture

By Vivien Lou Chen and Steve Goldstein

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield burst through 4% for the first time on an intraday basis since August on Monday, as traders continued to sell off U.S. government debt following last week's stronger-than-forecast jobs data.

What's happening

-- The yield on the 2-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD02Y was 3.985%, up 5.6 basis points from 3.929% on Friday, after briefly rising above 4%. It finished Friday's session with the biggest weekly advance since June 2022.

-- The yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y was 4.021%, up 4.1 basis points from 3.980% on Friday. The last time it went above 4% on an intraday basis was Aug. 8. It hasn't closed above 4% since July 31.

-- The yield on the 30-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD30Y was 4.3%, up 3.3 basis points from 4.267% on Friday.

What's driving markets

The bond market continued to sell off after Friday's data showed nonfarm payrolls rose by a greater-than-expected 254,000 new jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% previously. Job gains were also upwardly revised for August and July."September's job growth was not just 100K better than expected, it was accompanied by a big upward revision," said Chris Low, chief economist of FHN Financial in New York. "As a result, the whole economic picture looks brighter."

This week will feature inflation data, notably Thursday's release of the September consumer-price index.

Read: Stock market's soft-landing rally faces CPI inflation test. Here's what investors should do.

This week's auctions of U.S. government debt commence with a $58 billion sale of 3-year notes on Tuesday.

-Vivien Lou Chen -Steve Goldstein

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10-07-24 1153ET

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