Keeping Our Moderna FVE After In-Line Q1 Progress

We're maintaining our $117 fair value estimate for Moderna MRNA following the release of first-quarter results and updated data for its COVID-19 vaccine program that largely fit with our prior assumptions. Moderna shipped 102 million doses of mRNA-1273 in the first quarter, and reported sales of the vaccine of $1.7 billion in the quarter tracked closely with our $1.9 billion forecast. Advance purchase agreements for 845 million doses (corresponding to $19.2 billion in sales) are now in place for 2021. We've slightly raised our full-year estimate to match this (from our prior estimate of $18.8 billion), but we've also slightly raised our estimates for capital expenditures to factor in additional investment in manufacturing capacity, leading to a neutral impact on our valuation. We continue to think that Moderna is still in the process of building a moat based on its mRNA technology leadership.

We're still assessing the competitive landscape in this novel field of vaccine and drug development, and while COVID-19 vaccine mRNA-1273 remains central to investors during the pandemic, we're focused on Moderna's ability to create novel, differentiated vaccines in CMV (entering phase 3 this year), Zika (entering phase 2), and several other phase 1 respiratory virus programs, including RSV and flu. Beyond vaccines, Moderna is continuing to enroll studies in oncology, cardiology, and rare diseases, which could create a significant new market for therapeutic mRNA.

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