Morningstar

Ford's November Sales Depressed by Lower Car Model Sale

High-end demand remains strong for the automaker.

Securities In This Article
Ford Motor Co
(F)

November U.S. auto sales to consumers and fleet customers declined by 0.5% year over year, with Automotive News placing the seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate, or SAAR, at 17.55 million. There were an equal number of selling days for both Novembers. This rate is down slightly from 17.65 million in November 2017 but still a healthy level in our view. The industry looks well set up for its annual holiday sales rush, and with Americans continuing to devour light-truck models and unemployment low, we see no reason to be apprehensive about December sales. We expect the shift to light trucks to continue into 2019 because the national average of gas prices (according to AAA) is down 11% in the past month and light trucks provide much better fuel economy than 10 years ago, while providing more storage space than cars. The industry's light-truck mix is about 70%.

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About the Author

David Whiston, CFA, CPA, CFE

Strategist
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David Whiston, CFA, CPA, CFE, is a strategist, AM Industrials, for Morningstar*. He covers stocks in the automotive industry, including dealerships, parts manufacturers, and automakers. He has covered the automotive industry since joining Morningstar in 2007. He writes stock reports, ad hoc reports, stock analyst notes, and builds discounted cash flow models for each company covered. He also assesses their economic moat and makes frequent television and print media appearances in local, national, and international news outlets. Key stocks covered include GM, Ford, CarMax, and all six publicly traded franchise auto dealers, such as AutoNation and Penske Automotive Group.

Before joining Morningstar in 2007, Whiston spent four years in PricewaterhouseCoopers’ New York real estate audit practice and one year in its Chicago office working on real estate acquisition due diligence, gaining experience around assessing an asset’s cash flow.

Whiston holds a bachelor’s degree in business administration with a concentration in accounting from the University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business. He also holds a master’s degree in business administration with concentrations in finance, economics, and organizational behavior from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation, and he is a Certified Public Accountant and a Certified Fraud Examiner.

In 2012, he ranked first in the specialty retailers and services industry in The Wall Street Journal’s annual “Best on the Street” analysts survey. He ranked first in the same industry in 2011 .

* Morningstar Research Services LLC (“Morningstar”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc

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