Fair Value Up for Activision, Shares Fairly Valued

The narrow-moat company got off to a strong start this year and expects the launches of Destiny 2 and the next Call of Duty game to boost results later this year.

GAAP revenue for the quarter improved 19% year over year to $1,726 million (versus guidance of $1,550 million) due to strong performance at Blizzard. Console GAAP revenue fell 20% year over year to $615 million, as the latest Call of Duty game, Infinite Warfare, continues to underperform versus the 2015 installment, Black Ops III. Management expects Activision to rebound in the second half of 2017 with the launches of Destiny 2 and the next Call of Duty game. PC GAAP revenue improved 42% to $566 million driven by Overwatch as Blizzard continues to diversify its revenue stream. Overwatch recently became the firm’s eighth $1 billion franchise less than a year since its launch. GAAP operating margin for the quarter fell to 29% from 32% last year as the firm was hurt by fewer higher-margin digital sales at Activision.

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About the Author

Neil Macker, CFA

Senior Equity Analyst
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Neil Macker, CFA, is a senior equity analyst for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He covers media/entertainment and video game publishers.

Before joining Morningstar in 2014, Macker was a senior equity research associate for FBR & Co., where he covered the telecommunications services sector. Previously, he was an associate equity analyst for R.W. Baird and completed the summer associate rotational program at UBS Investment Bank. Before attending business school, Macker held analytical roles at Corporate Executive Board and Nextel.

Macker holds a bachelor’s degree from Carleton College, where he graduated cum laude, and a master’s degree in business administration from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

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