Corn Slides As Data Show Higher Acreage and Stocks — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

-Corn for December delivery fell 2.8% to $4.21 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, with traders selling off on corn after USDA reports showed both higher acreage and inventories than expected by analysts surveyed by the WSJ.

-Wheat for September delivery fell 0.7% to $5.75 1/4 a bushel.

-Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.1% to $11.05 1/2 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Drawn Out Response: The USDA's Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports were delayed by technical difficulties, drawing out the reaction to the data. The acreage and stocks report both ended up showing higher figures for U.S. corn than anticipated, which sent corn careening lower. "There were some issues releasing the numbers, but bearish stocks, bearish corn acres, fewer bean acres than expected, and less wheat acres than expected," Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives said in a note.

Following Behind: Higher-than-expected acreage and stocks sent U.S. corn sharply lower -- which in turn put pressure on wheat, while soybeans managed to remain higher. "The collapse of the corn market certainly weighed on wheat prices, while soybeans tried to firm on the lower acreage numbers - much of it being inter-market spreading," Arlan Suderman of StoneX said in a note. Suderman added that with the reports in the rear-view, traders will now position for their expectations regarding summer weather.

INSIGHT

Bottom Fishing: With the USDA reports now out of the way, analysts are turning their attention to how the weather plays out in the Corn Belt. "The issue is whether funds opt to keep a net short position in corn... into the heart of the growing season and as drought deepens in Ukraine," said AgResource in a note. Before the release of the USDA reports, analysts speculated that grains had little room left to drop, and were due for a rally.

Less Hopeful: Russian wheat exports are expected to total 46.1 million metric tons for the 2024/25 marketing year, SovEcon said in a note. That's down from 47.8 million tons previously anticipated, and down from 52.2 million tons of exports in the 2023/24 marketing year. "SovEcon believes that with a substantially smaller crop and rising food CPI, there is a higher chance of additional export restrictions in the new season," according to the firm. In turn, this may help lift wheat prices globally.

AHEAD

-The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

-The USDA will release its monthly Grain Crushings report at 3 p.m. ET Monday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 28, 2024 15:05 ET (19:05 GMT)

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