Good Numbers U.S. Automakers
We remain concerned about possible tariffs on imported vehicles, but for now, the U.S. auto industry looks healthy to us.
Automakers reported June 2018 U.S. light-vehicle sales that got help from an extra selling day this June. The seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate came in at 17.47 million, compared with 16.72 million in June 2017. Total sales came in at 1.55 million, a 5.2% increase from June 2017; however, we calculate a 1.3% rise after adjusting for the extra selling day. We think the industry had a good month and the trend toward light trucks over cars continues. Ford's U.S. sales head Mark LaNeve said on the July 3 Ford call there is no sign of stabilization in the industry's car mix, which for total U.S. industry sales has been in the low-30% range this year.
The first-half 2018 results have the industry up 1.9%, but we calculate 0.6% growth after adjusting for two extra selling days so far. The full year will have one extra selling day. We remain concerned about possible tariffs on imported vehicles, but for now, the U.S. auto industry looks healthy to us. The mix shift to light trucks, especially crossovers, should help profits and the U.S. unemployment situation remains bright with the number of people unemployed having declined year over year for all but one month (Sept. 2016) starting in June 2010.
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