Auto Sales: Slight Decline but Still Healthy
Both Ford and GM faced tough comparable from last year.
Automakers reported September U.S. light-vehicle sales that faced a difficult year-over-year comparable due to September 2017's large boost from replacement demand after Hurricane Harvey in Houston and from one less selling day in September 2018. Total sales for this September, excluding Audi, which has not reported yet, came in at 1.42 million, down 5.6% year over year. We calculate that on a constant selling days basis, sales declined by 1.8%. We expect the vast majority of the hurricane comparable problem to be in September 2018, but we expect October will also see some negative impact year over year. Despite large negative variances in headlines, we do not think the industry is in a bad position. Sales, although declining, are still healthy, and automakers are enjoying Americans' continued mix shift to light trucks over sedans. The former are nearly 70% of U.S. light-vehicle sales each month, and GM's and Ford's own mix is about 80%.
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