Apple's stock closes in on record high after upbeat call on iPhone availability

By Tomi Kilgore

J.P. Morgan says longer initial lead times for iPhone Pro models appear to be an 'aberration'

Shares of Apple Inc. surged Monday, enough to put them into positive territory for the month, after J.P. Morgan made an upbeat call on iPhone availability, with improvement led by the base 16 models.

Analyst Samik Chatterjee said that in the third week since ordering opened for Apple's new iPhone 16, J.P. Morgan's Apple Product Availability Tracker indicated that delivery lead times were trending better, toward shorter times between order and delivery.

If the improvements continue, Chatterjee said it would mean that the longer initial lead times for the Pro models were "only an aberration," due to supply mix and as higher-end consumers waited for the release of Apple's artificial-intelligence software, Apple Intelligence.

Apple's stock (AAPL) climbed 1.3% in afternoon trading Monday, enough to make it the Dow Jones Industrial Average's DJIA best-performing component. It was also headed for its highest close since it ended July 16 at a record $234.82.

With Monday's gain, the stock is now up 0.7% in September, which marks the fifth straight monthly gain. That would be the longest such streak since the seven-month stretch that ended in July 2023.

"In aggregate, although overall lead times for the iPhone 16 models are still lower relative to iPhone 15 last year, narrowing of the gap between the two groups (Base vs. Pro) over the last week as well as steady lead times for the Pro models are highlighting the likelihood that the initial slower momentum in demand for the Pro models is correcting itself with the release of Apple Intelligence drawing closer," Chatterjee wrote in a note to clients.

Chatterjee said delivery-at-home timing across regions in Week 3 was 10 days for the iPhone 16 and five days for the iPhone 16 Plus, compared with 17 days and 16 days, respectively, in Week 2.

Timing averaged 23 days for the 16 Pro and 29 days for the 16 Pro Max, the same as in Week 2.

In comparison, delivery-at-home timing for the 15, 15 Plus, 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max a year ago in Week 3 averaged 17 days, 17 days, 29 days and 46 days, respectively.

Apple's stock has rallied 19.8% year to date, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund XLK has climbed 16% and the Dow has advanced 11.5%.

-Tomi Kilgore

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09-30-24 1442ET

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