Chicago business-activity index remains in contraction territory for 10th straight month

By Greg Robb

Index inches up to 46.6 in September, above forecast of 45.3

The Chicago Business Barometer, the gauge of business activity also known as the Chicago PMI, rose to 46.6 in September from 46.1 in August.

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 45.3 reading.

The index has been below the 50 break-even point between contraction and expansion since last November but has recovered from a low of 35.4 in May.

The index is produced by the ISM-Chicago with MNI and is released to subscribers three minutes before its release to the public at 9:45 am Eastern time. It is one of the last of the regional manufacturing indices before the national ISM data for September is released Tuesday.

The ISM index has been pointing to weak demand, remaining below the 50% break-even point for five straight months. The ISM index rose to 47.2% in August from 46.8% in the prior month. Most other regional Fed manufacturing surveys have slipped in September, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"The Chicago PMI tends to underperform the ISM when Boeing (BA) is struggling, and aircraft orders have been weak this year," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a recent note to clients.

The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers has been on strike at Boeing since Sept. 13, stopping all production of 737 and other airplanes.

-Greg Robb

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09-30-24 1010ET

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