The stock market often falls in the 2 months leading to Election Day. Here's what history says.

By William Watts

S&P 500 has declined in every 2-month countdown since 2008

The two-month countdown to the Nov. 5 presidential election begins Thursday, a period that's often marked a rough patch for the U.S. stock market.

According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P 500 SPX has turned in a negative performance over that two-month stretch in every election year since 2008, with an average fall of 5.8%.

Taking a longer view, since 1952, the S&P 500 has averaged a decline of 0.2%, but has seen a median gain of 0.1%, with a 50-50 split between gains and losses.

Investing pros caution that while it's worth paying attention to seasonal patterns, they're merely a record of what has happened in the past rather than a roadmap.

The table above and the chart below highlight the historical data for the S&P 500 as well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA and the Nasdaq Composite COMP. Both the Dow and Nasdaq have posted average and median declines over the two-month period, with the Dow rising just a third of the time and the Nasdaq 38.5% of the time. The Nasdaq data goes back to 1972.

Of course, September is well known for its seasonal weakness, seeing an average fall of 0.78% in all years going back to 1944, according to CFRA Research, versus an average gain of 0.72% for all months. But presidential election years have seen October join September and February as a down month, with an average decline of 0.45%. September has averaged a fall of 0.51% in presidential election years and a decline of 0.78% in all years, while October has averaged a gain of 1.04% across all years.

Read: This chart shows how the stock market has performed from Labor Day to year-end

-Ken Jimenez contributed to this article.

-William Watts

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09-06-24 0610ET

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