Nvidia is nearing another milestone that would showcase its stunning growth

By Emily Bary

Several analysts see the company hitting the $30 billion revenue mark when it reports earnings next week. The company crossed the $20 billion threshold two quarters ago.

Nvidia Corp. keeps moving the bar higher. This time around, that could mean a new revenue milestone.

Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri sees the possibility of Nvidia (NVDA) topping $30 billion in revenue when the semiconductor company posts earnings next Wednesday afternoon. His projection is above the consensus view, which calls for $28.7 billion.

A revenue total above the $30 billion mark would highlight just how rapidly Nvidia has been able to grow - and at scale. The company first exceeded $10 billion in quarterly revenue a year ago, and it topped $20 billion in quarterly revenue during the January quarter.

Analysts see the potential for a $40 billion revenue quarter a year or so from now. The FactSet consensus models $39.6 billion in revenue for next year's July quarter, and $42.3 billion in revenue for next year's October quarter.

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Nvidia has beaten consensus revenue expectations each quarter going back at least five years. But even if Nvidia weren't to hit Pajjuri's $30 billion-plus revenue mark this quarter, merely meeting the consensus view would be an impressive show of growth as it would mean revenue more than doubled from a year before. Nvidia's growth is slowing as the company starts to lap periods that also benefitted from explosive demand for artificial-intelligence hardware, but to be able to double revenue at current levels is a rare feat.

Pajjuri said he sees strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper chip lineup, and he isn't so worried about the prospect of shipment delays for the new Blackwell line. He and his team "have no reason to doubt [Nvidia's (and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.'s (TSM))] execution capabilities and are optimistic that B100/B200 boards will ship this year, followed by GB200 NVL rack systems" in the first half of 2025, he wrote, referring to various Blackwell offerings.

Read: Nvidia's earnings could be noisy, but these bulls are still upbeat on the stock

If anything, a short-term delay in Blackwell shipments could help Nvidia when it comes to gross margins, as Pajjuri estimated that the Hopper lineup boasts gross margins 3 to 6 percentage points above what Blackwell will.

He rates the stock a strong buy.

HSBC analyst Frank Lee sees the possibility of a beat as well, with his revenue estimate coming in at $30 billion flat. He's optimistic about the quarters to come as well, estimating $33 billion in revenue for the October quarter and $36 billion in revenue for the January quarter, both above the FactSet consensus figures.

"Roadmap changes and production delays to next-gen GB200 chips unlikely to significantly affect [the second half of this fiscal year or the fiscal 2026 outlook]," Lee wrote. He maintained a buy rating on Nvidia's stock and boosted his price target to $145 from $135, though he acknowledged the company might have less pricing power come fiscal 2026.

See also: AMD to make $4.9 billion AI acquisition as it steps up race against Nvidia

-Emily Bary

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08-21-24 0927ET

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