IEA trims oil-demand outlook for 2025 as it sees supplies rising further next year

By Barbara Kollmeyer

Oil demand in China continues to wane

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has taken a haircut to its outlook for oil demand next year, as it sees continued rising supplies.

In its June outlook published on Thursday, the Paris-based IEA said that it expects 2024 oil demand to average 970,000 barrels per day, slightly above a previous forecast of 960,000 barrels per day. However in 2025, it expects demand to drop from a prior 1 million barrels per day to 980,000 b/d.

World oil demand growth slowed to only 710 kb/d in 2Q24, its lowest quarterly increase in over a year, as the energy data provider pointed the finger at one big consumer.

"Oil consumption in China, long the engine of global oil demand growth, contracted in both April and May, and is now assessed marginally below earlier levels" in the second quarter of this year, said the IEA in its report.

Meanwhile, the IEA lifted forecasts for global oil supply in 2024, predicting a 770,000 b/d overall gain for the year, boosted largely by non-OPEC countries. That will boost 2024 supply to a record 103 million b/d this year, it said. And in 2025, it sees global supply growth up a much stronger 1.8 million b/d.

Brent crude oil (BRN00) was last up 29 cents or 0.3% to $85.34 a barrel, and front-month West Texas Intermediate futures (CL.1) were up 0.2% at $82.30 a barrel on Thursday. Both Brent and WTI are up more than 10% and 14%, respectively, year-to-date.

-Barbara Kollmeyer

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

07-11-24 0553ET

Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.