Corn Futures Higher on Lower-Than-Expected Stocks — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

--Corn for December delivery rose 1.4% to $4.24 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, with futures surging after the report showed 3Q grain stocks that were lower than forecast by analysts.

--Wheat for December delivery rose 0.6% to $5.83 1/2 a bushel.

--Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.8% to $10.56 3/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Hit the Ignition: Most-active corn futures made a strong turnaround after the USDA reported lower-than-expected grain stocks for corn. In its quarterly grain stocks report Monday, the USDA said corn stocks through Sept. 1 totaled 1.76 billion bushels, nearly 100 million bushels lower than forecasts by analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal ahead of the report. The reduction may have been confirmation of strong demand, particularly from the export market, said Krista Swanson, lead economist with the National Corn Growers Association.

Only a Drizzle: Rainfall traveled through Black Sea wheat-growing regions over the weekend, but didn't leave enough of a mark to be helpful for Russia's wheat situation. "Eastern Ukraine and western Russia have been very dry for months and the systems moving through Europe are not bringing the needed rainfall to the region for winter wheat planting," said ADM Investor Services in a note. Dryness in Central and Western Russia has been a factor clipping estimates around the size of the country's wheat crop -- with Russia being the leading wheat exporter.

Turning the Spigot: Soybean were under pressure throughout the day - held back by a change in sentiment around Brazil, where traders and analysts anticipate wetter weather coinciding with the approaching rainy season typically seen in the winter months. This rainfall will be helpful to soybean farmers unable to plant amid drought conditions, said AgResource in a note. "It's soy that lacks a story, assuming regular rain begins to fall in Northern Brazil mid-October onward," the firm said.

INSIGHT

Money Flow: Open interest in commodities rose across the board for the week ended Sept. 27, said JPMorgan Global Commodities Research in its latest weekly report. "China's aggressive stimulus has supported the continued recovery of global commodity market open interest value," said the firm in its report, stating that open interest rose 1.2% week-over-week to $1.38 trillion-the highest in two months. Gains were driven largely by base metals and agriculture, with base metal open interest up by $16 billion and agricultural open interest rose by roughly $12 billion. Analysts hope an improved Chinese economy would spur greater export demand for U.S. goods.

Flashing Sign: Some grain traders and analysts took the lower-than-expected corn stocks reported Monday as a sign that the next WASDE report may pull back on its bumper-crop expectations for the grain. "The corn numbers can likely support that market on strong demand and expectations that the USDA will lower 2024 production on the October report," Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives said in a note after the report's release. The next WASDE report is due out Oct. 11, and for corn would come after the USDA lifted its production outlook on stronger yield forecasts in the last report.

Trending Up: Export inspections of U.S. soybeans rose over last week's figures, but are lower over this time last year, the USDA said in its weekly export inspections report. For the week ended Sept. 26, soybean inspections totaled 675,749 metric tons--up from 498,586 tons reported last week. However, inspections are slightly down from this time last year, which totaled 677,786 tons. Corn and wheat inspections were both lower than this time last week, but both higher than this time last year's figures of 1.14 million tons and 536,929 tons, respectively.

AHEAD

--The USDA will release its monthly Grain Crushings report at 3 p.m. ET Tuesday.

--Cal-Maine Foods will release its first-quarter 2025 earnings report at 4:05 p.m. ET Tuesday.

--Conagra Brands will release its first-quarter 2025 earnings report before the stock market opens Wednesday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 30, 2024 15:42 ET (19:42 GMT)

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