Corn Futures Down as Big Harvest Gets Under Way — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

-- Corn for December delivery fell 1.7% to $4.06 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, taking the lead as fund traders pull money out of both agricultural and soft commodities, with all signs pointing to a robust harvest in corn.

-- Wheat for December delivery fell 1.6% to $5.66 a bushel.

-- Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.1% to $10.13 1/2 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Grain Drain: Corn and wheat both tumbled Thursday, while soybeans inched lower.

Selling was tied to Wednesday's half-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which in turn has traders more amenable to market risk.

"The strong risk-on tone may be emboldening sellers as harvest is right around the corner," said Sterling Smith of AgriSompo.

Smith added that traders are preparing for an influx of new U.S. crop hitting the market, particularly corn.

Export Support: Soybean futures had support more than wheat and corn, with soybean export sales exceeding analyst targets for the week ended Sept. 12.

In its latest weekly export sales report, the USDA said that 2024-25 soybean sales totaled 1.75 million metric tons for the week.

Underpinning the strong total was sales of 973,900 tons to China.

Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this week forecast soybean sales to land between 500,000 tons and 1.6 million tons.

"The U.S. continues to find decent export demand as we head toward the time of the year when we ship out the most beans," said Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note.

INSIGHT

Competing Narratives: Analysts and traders are trying to reconcile two different supply stories for wheat -- one of shrinking wheat crops out of France, and another of continued stiff export market competition out of Russia.

"The prices are shared between the fundamental European tension on the one hand and the strong competition of the Black Sea wheat on the other hand," said Argus in a note.

This week, FranceAgriMer published its latest balance sheets, projecting smaller wheat and barley crops for 2024-25 and a 61% decline in soft wheat exports versus the previous year.

Pulling Back: Agricultural and soft commodities were under pressure, while precious and industrial metals were higher.

"In the short run, money is flowing to the macro markets and away from the grain markets," said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage in a note. "There was some hope that the 50 basis-point rate reduction by the Fed would push the dollar lower and thus support grain prices, however, in the short run that has not happened."

The WSJ Dollar Index is flat late in trading Thursday.

AHEAD

-- The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly Cattle on Feed Report at 3 p.m. EDT Friday.

-- The CFTC is due to release its weekly Commitments of Traders Report at 3:30 p.m. EDT Friday.

-- The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. EDT Monday.

-- The USDA is due to release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. EDT Monday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 19, 2024 15:46 ET (19:46 GMT)

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