Nutrien Raises Outlook for Potash Shipments — Commodity Comment

By Stephen Nakrosis

Fertilizer maker Nutrien said demand for potash looks to remain strong in the second half of the year, while sales for phosphate and nitrogen may be lower than expected.

Potash Outlook

The company said it was raising its 2024 full-year global potash-shipment forecast to 69 million to 72 million tons. The company increased potash sales-volume guidance to 13.2 million to 13.8 million tons, on expectations for higher global demand. Previously, Nutrien said it was expecting potash sales in a range of 13 million to 13.8 million tons.

Nitrogen Outlook

Nutrien said it was narrowing its nitrogen sales-volume guidance to 10.7 million to 11.1 million tons, from a range of 10.6 million to 11.2 million tons. The company also said global nitrogen markets were being supported by steady demand and continued supply challenges in key producing regions.

Phosphate Outlook

The company said it now expects phosphate-sales volumes in a range of 2.5 million to 2.6 million tons, from earlier expectations of 2.6 million tons to 2.8 million tons. Prices for phosphate fertilizer are being supported by tight global supply as a result of Chinese export restrictions, low channel inventories in North America and seasonal demand in Brazil and India, Nutrien said. The company said it expects some impact on phosphate-fertilizer demand in the second half of the year, as affordability levels are down compared to potash and nitrogen.

Agricultural Outlook

Favorable growing conditions in the U.S. have led to expectations of record corn and soybean yields, which has pressured crop prices, the company said. But Nutrien sees demand for crop inputs in North America remaining strong in the third quarter, as growers look to maintain plant health and yield potential. Good affordability for potash and nitrogen is seen supporting fall application rates this year.

In Brazil, crop prices and prospective grower margins have improved from earlier this year on a weaker currency, Nutrien said. The company also said fertilizer demand is projected to be about 46 million tons this year, in line with historical, record levels.

Australian moisture conditions vary regionally but are supportive of crop input demand as trend yields are expected, the company added.

Write to Stephen Nakrosis at stephen.nakrosis@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 07, 2024 19:39 ET (23:39 GMT)

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