APA Corp

APA: XNAS (USA)

Morningstar Rating for Stocks	Fair Value	Economic Moat	Capital Allocation
	$95.00	Krs	Xxnqjcxt

APA Earnings: Delays to Suriname Deal a Blow to Our Fair Value Estimate

Stephen Ellis ,

Aug 1, 2024

We reduce our fair value estimate for no-moat-rated APA to $45 from $54, mostly due to delays from its Suriname development. Suriname will be APA's growth engine, producing low-cost volumes at Brent exposed prices. Any delays to these barrels have a significant impact on the firm's value. Our forecast now reflects first oil in 2028, whereas our model had been expecting volumes in 2026. We thought as a final investment decision neared, a first oil date might be moved up as new information was gathered, but that has not been the case.

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