Ansys Earnings: Mixed Earnings as Ansys Set to Be Acquired by Synopsys Within a Year

We maintain our $327 per share fair value estimate for wide-moat Ansys after the firm reported mixed results compared with expectations. As a reminder, in December 2023, narrow-moat Synopsys entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Ansys in a cash-and-stock deal for an enterprise value of approximately $35 billion. The acquisition is expected to close in the first half of 2025, and consequently, Ansys is not providing guidance or earnings calls. Our $327 fair value estimate is blended, based on a 75% chance of Ansys shareholders receiving the $349 in value from Synopsys and a 25% chance of the deal not materializing and Ansys continuing to operate independently at a stand-alone valuation of $262 per share. Our assessment of the probability that the deal falls through is informed by scrutiny of the deal by Chinese regulators, even though the deal comes under China’s merger notification bar.