Mapletree Logistics Trust Earnings: Results Miss on Currency and China Headwinds

Mapletree Logistics Trust’s first-quarter fiscal 2025 (ending March) results were slightly below our expectations as distribution per unit fell 8.9% year over year to SGD 0.02, making up 23.8% of our full-year estimate. The weak performance was due to lower contributions from its China portfolio and currency headwinds from the stronger Singapore dollar against the Japanese yen and South Korean won. After factoring in a slower recovery for its China portfolio and finetuning our currency assumptions, we cut our fair value estimate to SGD 1.54 per unit from SGD 1.60. While our fiscal 2025-27 DPU estimates are lowered by 4.2%-6.5%, we think the trust continues to screen as undervalued, trading at an attractive fiscal 2025 distribution yield of 6.3%. That said, we think that persistent weakness in the China logistics portfolio may continue to weigh on its unit price performance.