Clinuvel: Potential New Therapy for DNA Repair, but Still Early

We are maintaining our AUD 18 per share fair value estimate and earnings estimates. No-moat Clinuvel completed a study evaluating the efficacy of afamelanotide, a synthetic drug used in its main Scenesse product, as a treatment for DNA repair following damage from ultraviolet radiation in fair-skinned patients. While results indicated that afamelanotide can reduce UV damage and inflammatory reactions after sun exposure, we think it is too early to ascribe any material value. Beyond the existing indication of erythropoietic protoporphyria, a rare genetic disease that causes extreme pain from exposure to light. Clinuvel is exploring other potential indications for Scenesse. This includes vitiligo, and potentially, DNA repair, which accounts for 17% of our fair value estimate.