Bapcor's Trade Business Underpins Its Narrow Economic Moat

We expect Bapcor's strong earnings growth to return as the competitively advantaged trade business capitalizes on favorable industry dynamics. We forecast Bapcor continuing to capture market share in the fragmented trade business as it rolls out stores. We forecast a double-digit EPS compound annual growth rate over the next five years as the business recovers from trough earnings in fiscal 2024, buoyed same-store sales growth of around 2%-3% per year, and growing private-label penetration.