Tesla quarterly sales are tracking lower, this analyst says

By Claudia Assis

Tesla's second-quarter sales estimates trimmed at RBC

App downloads and registration data in the U.S. and China as well as in Europe point to lower second-quarter sales for Tesla Inc., analysts at RBC Capital said in a note Tuesday.

The analysts, led by Tom Narayan, said they expect deliveries to be down 4.3% from Wall Street consensus and about 23% from their own previous expectations.

Tesla (TSLA) reports quarterly deliveries, its proxy for sales, a short few days after the end of the quarter.

It is likely to report second-quarter deliveries in the first week of July and at that time set up the date to report its second-quarter earnings in the second week of the month.

The RBC analysts combined monthly registration data with app download trends as a secondary method. The app downloads suggested "a stronger finish to the quarter for the U.S. and Europe," they said.

The RBC analysts estimate that Tesla will have delivered around 411,000 EVs, in the quarter, compared with their previous forecast of 533,000 EVs.

Analysts polled by FactSet expect the EV maker to deliver 436,000 EVs, mostly Model 3s and Model Ys.

Late Monday, news emerged that Tesla has issued a recall involving more than 11,000 Cybertrucks due to potential problems with windshield wiper motors and a trunk-bed trim seal.

The stock has gained more than 6% so far this quarter, compared with gains of around 4% for the S&P 500 index SPX in the same period.

So far this year, Tesla shares have lost about a quarter of their value, contrasting with gains of about 15% for the S&P 500 index.

Tesla earlier this month won crucial, if symbolic, shareholder votes at its annual meeting, as shareholders approved Chief Executive Elon Musk's pay package by a wide margin and gave the company the go-ahead to reincorporate in Texas from Delaware.

Related: A second wave of EV shoppers is on its way, but current demand is still a problem

-Claudia Assis

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06-25-24 1204ET

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