U.S. Crude-Oil Stockpiles Likely Unchanged in DOE Data, Analysts Say — Update

By Dan Molinski

U.S. crude-oil inventories are expected to see no change from the previous week in data due Wednesday from the Energy Department, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.

The average of estimates from ten analysts and traders showed U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles are projected to remain virtually flat at around 416.3 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 29. Four of the forecasters are predicting a decrease while six are expecting an increase. Expectations range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 2.4 million barrels.

The closely watched inventory data from the DOE's Energy Information Administration is scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

Gasoline inventories are expected to rise by 300,000 barrels from the previous week, according to analysts. Estimates range from a decrease of 1.6 million barrels to an increase of 2.6 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which are mostly diesel fuel, are expected to decrease by 400,000 barrels from the previous week. Forecasts range from a decrease of 3.1 million barrels to an increase of 1.9 million barrels.

Refinery use likely fell by 0.3 percentage point from the previous week, to 89.2%. Forecasts range from a decrease of 0.8 percentage point to an increase of 0.8 percentage point. Two analysts didn't make a forecast.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its own data for the week showed a 4.2-million-barrel decrease in crude supplies, a 3.9-million-barrel rise in gasoline stocks and a 349,000-barrel increase in diesel inventories, according to a source.

 
                                  Crude    Gasoline   Distillates     Refinery 
                                                                        Use 
 Again Capital                    -1.4        2.6         1.1           -0.8 
 Commodity Research Group          2.4        0.4         1.6           -0.6 
 Confluence Investment Management  1.5       -1          -1.5           -0.5 
 DTN                               0.8        1.8        -1.2           -0.3 
 Excel Futures                    -2.5        1.2         0.9           -0.4 
 Spartan Capital Securities        0.8       -1.6         1.9            n/f 
 Mizuho                            2         -1          -1             -0.5 
 Price Futures Group              -3         -1          -2             unch 
 Ritterbusch and Associates        1.6       -0.5        -1.0            0.8 
 Tradition Energy                 -2          2          -3.1            n/f 
 AVERAGE                          unch        0.3        -0.4           -0.3 
 
 n/f = no forecast 
 unch = unchanged 
 Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points. 
 

Write to Dan Molinski at dan.molinski@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 03, 2023 17:02 ET (21:02 GMT)

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