US Economic Outlook: Q3 2024

Despite the unemployment rate uptick, the risk of recession hasn’t seriously increased

The US economy prevails above recession risks and labor market fears as the end of 2024 approaches. Higher unemployment, attributed to an increase in labor supply, does not signal a serious concern for economic contraction. Inflation continues to fall and align with normal forecast growths, suggesting stabilizing conditions. We also expect aggressive rate cuts in line with our end-2025 goal. Most notably, our 2024 election forecast identifies trade as a crucial issue, with potential for significant policy shifts.

Our newest economic outlook investigates further the following contributors:

• Inflation
• Interest rates
• Election outcomes
• GDP
• The Federal Reserve
• Consumer spending

Download the full report to explore more on how we’ve assessed the latest economic trends and predictions—and what they mean for your clients’ portfolios.