Reducing Glencore's Fair Value Estimate by 4% on Lower Metallurgical Coal and Base Metals Prices

Glencore ranks among the most diversified of the large global miners. As China is the key demand driver for nearly everything Glencore mines, diversification benefits are limited. Glencore’s oil and agriculture businesses (held through its 50% stake in Viterra, which has agreed to merge with competitor Bunge, likely effective in 2024) are less China-centric but relatively small contributors, while its marketing business (roughly 25% of forecast midcycle group EBITDA from 2028) should be relatively resilient to changes in China’s rate of economic growth.