Acciona Energia: Profit Warning for 2024 Because of Curtailed Output

We confirm our EUR 25 fair value estimate after no-moat Acciona Energia released its first-quarter trading statement, calling for 2024 EBITDA lower than the guidance set on March 1 due to the firm's decision to curtail its output in the first quarter because of depressed spot power prices driven by a combination of favorable wind and hydro conditions and subdued demand due to a mild winter. This reflects the challenges of the Spanish power market where high renewables penetration entails frequent episodes of negative spot prices. Still, with shares down by 6% at the time of writing, we view the market's reaction as excessive and shares as undervalued.