Keyera Earnings: Marketing Guidance Reset Again; We've Now Moved Beyond Firm's Base

Keyera’s first-quarter earnings were a bit better than expected, due to marketing outperformance yet again. Overall EBITDA improved 8% to CAD 314 million from last year’s levels. This marketing streak has continued a pattern for some time now, and Keyera continues to cling to its base marketing guidance of a midpoint of CAD 330 million. Now, 2024 is expected to achieve a midpoint of CAD 450 million, reflecting the continued strength of the iso-octane business. We’ve boosted our forecast for 2024 similarly, but also made sure that our 2025-28 marketing forecast reflects a minimum of CAD 476 million per year in contributions. Our revised fair value estimate is now CAD 36, up from CAD 34. Our no moat rating is unchanged.