Sobi Earnings: Maintaining Our SEK 252 Fair Value Estimate Following Mixed Quarter

We’re maintaining our Sobi fair value estimate at SEK 252 following a mixed quarter, with solid launches for royalty-generating drugs in hemophilia (Sanofi’s Altuviiio) and RSV (Sanofi’s Beyfortus), but also a quarter-over-quarter sales decline for new myelofibrosis drug Vonjo (acquired with CTI in 2023), a counterweight to Beyfortus from shrinking sales of older RSV drug Synagis, and a smaller opportunity for rare disease drug Aspaveli due to competition. We assume 6.5% revenue growth and a 37.4% EBITA margin for 2024, which we see as in line with company guidance of high-single-digit revenue growth and a mid-30s margin. Sobi’s own launch of Altuviiio in international markets should begin this year, and potential filings for gout drug SEL-212 as well as a nephrology-related label expansion for Aspaveli could help Sobi maintain solid long-term growth. However, we’re concerned with the firm’s reliance on acquisitions to build its portfolio as well as competition, and we don’t think the firm has established a moat. We still see uncertainty around the Vonjo launch as we sort through the effects of new competition, disrupted commercial momentum as the CTI acquisition closed, and price discounts.