Amgen Earnings: Maintaining $268 Fair Value Following In-Line 2023 as Obesity Data Approaches

We’re maintaining our $268 fair value estimate for Amgen following in-line 2023 results. We think approved drugs and pipeline candidates should help the firm maintain solid mid-single-digit growth and a wide economic moat, although a successful obesity drug could move growth into double-digit territory. Given only phase 1 data so far, we assume a 30% probability of approval for obesity drug candidate MariTide. We see the shares as slightly overvalued at recent prices, likely because of overenthusiasm about Amgen’s prospects in this market.