Ampol Ltd

ALD: XASX (AUS)

Morningstar Rating for Stocks	Fair Value	Economic Moat	Capital Allocation
	A$66.00	Jqp	Hkjrmdv

Ampol: Nonrefining Earnings Growth Offsets Decline in Refining From Historical Highs

Mark Taylor

Jan 19, 2024

Our AUD 35 fair value estimate for no-moat Ampol stands. Australia’s largest refined fuel retailer reported unaudited fourth-quarter 2023 underlying EBIT in the vicinity of AUD 340 million, down approximately 30% on the immediately preceding quarter. We talk only in approximates as Ampol didn’t provide a figure for the quarter, saying simply that 2023 full-year EBIT is anticipated to be slightly ahead of the record AUD 1.35 billion result delivered in 2022. We marginally increased our 2023 EPS forecast to AUD 3.34, based on a slightly stronger 2023 underlying EBIT estimate of AUD 1.40 billion.

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