Chart Industries: Analyst Day Targets Suggest Even More Fair Value Upside for Undervalued Stock

Chart's Analyst Day was valuable as it let us benchmark our forecast against the first medium-term forecast from Chart's management team including Howden. While we are leaving our $200 fair value estimate and narrow moat rating unchanged, management's forecast suggests potential further upside to our fair value estimate if all of its 2023-26 goals are fully achieved. We find this situation particularly compelling, as our estimates are already materially above consensus estimates, suggesting the market is deeply misunderstanding the stock. For example, per PitchBook, 2024 consensus estimates for revenue and EBITDA are $4.7 billion and $1.1 billion compared with our $5.2 billion and $1.3 billion forecast. We continue to think Chart's opportunities across LNG, hydrogen, carbon capture, and water treatment solutions remain sizable and unappreciated.