Exact Sciences: Encouraging Cologuard Results Make Investors Hopeful, but No Change To Fair Value

Exact Sciences released strong test results for its next-generation Cologuard test that pushed shares up 9% in after-hours trading. The strength of these results has made investors hopeful that Cologuard will be able to fend off upcoming competition in the colorectal cancer screening market, but we still believe blood-based liquid biopsies hold significant promise versus the stool-based options. Therefore, we keep our $64 fair value estimate intact for now, suggesting Exact Sciences shares remain moderately overvalued. Also, our no moat rating continues to reflect the potential for increased competition in the long run, despite the solid results.