Aurora Cannabis Earnings: Steady End to Shortened Fiscal 2023, but Extreme Uncertainty Remains

Not much of our long-term outlook for Aurora Cannabis is likely to change based on our initial reaction to fiscal third-quarter results, the end to a shortened fiscal 2023 as the no-moat company shifts its year-end date. We will update our model after more-complete financials are released, but we expect to reduce our $3/CAD 4 fair value estimate by a high-single-digit to low-double-digit percentage, in line with the shares' 8% drop in reaction to the results. Our cut is mostly due to further dilution of shareholders, with around 13 million shares being issued during and subsequent to the quarter well below our fair value estimate.