Mapletree Industrial Trust Earnings: Dividend Miss on Higher Borrowing Cost; FVE Lowered to SGD 2.41

Mapletree Industrial Trust’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 (ending March) net property income was in line with our estimate, growing 5.8% year on year to SGD 129 million. However, the trust’s distribution per unit of SGD 0.033 fell below our expectations due to higher borrowing cost. We lower our fair value estimate slightly to SGD 2.41 per unit from SGD 2.52, after rolling forward our estimates and factoring in the effect of valuation decay on its Singapore leasehold assets and a higher near-term cost of debt. As a result, our estimated fiscal 2024 DPU drops to SGD 0.131 from SGD 0.145. Based on the last closing price of SGD 2.36, the trust trades at a 2024 dividend yield of 5.6% and we think it is fairly valued.