First Republic Earnings: Our Worries Come True as Bank Likely No Longer Profitable

No-moat-rated First Republic Bank reported first-quarter results that shed more light on what has transpired for it since the downfall of Silicon Valley, and it isn't pretty. It appears the bank lost roughly $100 billion in deposits when excluding the $30 billion it received from the group of several large U.S. banks. This means that First Republic lost nearly 60% of its core deposit base. As we adjust our projections and the probabilities associated with different outcomes, our current $3 fair value estimate may change, but we do not expect it to change materially enough that the shares would look undervalued. We do not see any easy solutions for the bank, and we still see a material probability that there is little left for equityholders once this situation fully plays out.