Lennar's Pricing Concessions Will Hurt Margins in 2023, but We Expect Outsize Cash Flow

United States homebuilders enjoyed a robust demand environment from 2020-22 despite the COVID-19 pandemic. We believe several factors explain the pandemic-era housing surge, including increased suburban and cross-state migration (due in part to the rise of flexible work arrangements), government stimulus (which bolstered household savings), and record-low mortgage rates (which supported affordability despite rising home prices). However, home sales activity began to decline in 2022 as rising mortgage rates and high home prices reduced homeownership affordability.