Maintaining $62 Fair Value Estimate for Ionis Following In-Line Q1 Results as Data Readouts Approach

Ionis reported first-quarter results in line with our expectations and confirmed its outlook for 2022, so we're not making any changes to our $62 fair value estimate. Ionis expects data from the phase 3 study of Astra-partnered eplontersen in polyneuropathy by mid-2022, and if data is positive, we expect the drug to be approved in 2023. Ionis announced in April that it has increased the size and duration of its phase 3 trial for the drug in cardiomyopathy; while this pushes the timing of data from late 2024 to the first half of 2025, we think improving the odds of achieving clear signals for different subsets of patients—those with hereditary or wild-type disease, for example, or those naive to treatment or taking Pfizer's Vyndaqel in combination with eplontersen—could make it worth the wait, despite the fact that this increases the potential lead for Alnlylam's vutrisiran (still expecting data in early 2024). Despite other RNA-targeting technology that could compete with Ionis' technology down the road, we continue to assign Ionis a narrow moat rating based on the breadth and potential of its late-stage pipeline in neurology, cardiology, and rare diseases.