Narrow-Moat Kuehne+Nagel Delivered the Payload in 2021

Narrow-moat Kuehne+Nagel delivered a stonking performance in 2021, with revenue up more than 60% year over year, and earnings almost threefold what the company made the prior year. This comes on the back of tight capacity in shipping markets, which have caused freight rates to spike, and allowed third-party logistics firms such as Kuehne to leverage its strong position in sea freight to capture higher fees. With 2022 shaping up to be another hugely profitable year for the shipping and logistics industry, we expect to upgrade our near-term forecasts for Kuehne, but do not expect this to change our stance on the stock. Despite the attractive prospects over the coming period, we believe the shares are overvalued relative to our CHF 160 fair value estimate.