Maintaining Our SEK 192 FVE for Sobi Following in Line Q4 and 2022 Guidance

We're not making any significant changes to our model following Sobi's fourth-quarter results, as Sobi's performance and 2022 guidance both closely matched our forecast. Sobi's top line grew 9% in the fourth quarter at constant currencies, with solid 8% growth in hematology despite slower 3% growth in the hemophilia subset. Hemophilia represented 40% of sales in the fourth quarter, and we expect this percentage to decline as Sobi's newer products in hematology and immunology continue to launch. Pricing pressure in hemophilia particularly weighed on Elocta sales in 2021 due to price changes in Germany; we expect continued, milder pricing pressure on both Elocta and Alprolix going forward, partly countered by continued low-single-digit patient growth. In immunology, Kineret's expanded prescribing label (now includes Covid) boosted fourth-quarter sales above our expectations, and Gamifant's launch also drove growth, countered by a 5% decline in sales of RSV prevention drug Synagis. The firm's outlook for mid to high-single-digit sales growth and an EBITA margin in the low 30s appears reasonable, as Sobi achieved a 36% EBITA margin in 2021, and additional investment in late-stage clinical trials could put pressure on near-term margins, in exchange for potential long-term sales growth.