Ryanair Maintains Guidance as It Looks Forward to a Bumper Summer Season

No-moat Ryanair’s traffic recovery in the second quarter and the start of the third quarter was disrupted by the omicron variant, which negatively affected capacity and load factors in December 2021. January capacity has also been cut by 33% and the company now expects to fly between 6 million and 7 million passengers in January, compared with previous estimates of 10 million passengers. Guidance communicated at the outbreak of the omicron variant for the full year ended March 2022 remains unchanged, with expectations of a full-year loss between GBP 250 million and GBP 450 million and carrying less than 100 million passengers. Summer 2022 scheduled capacity is on track to exceed precoronavirus levels, with nearly 15% more seats available compared with 2019. Growth will be supported by the delivery of the group’s orders for 210 737-MAX aircraft, of which 41 have been delivered to date. We make no changes to our EUR 18.20 fair value estimate with shares trading in slight discount territory.