We Are Relaunching Adyen With a Wide Moat Rating and Fair Value Estimate of EUR 1,100 Per Share

We are relaunching coverage of Adyen with a wide economic moat and positive moat trend ratings, reflecting our high level of confidence in the company’s ability to sustain and enhance its competitive positioning. Our new fair value estimate is EUR 1,100 per share, which corresponds to an implied 2021 enterprise value/EBITDA multiple of 64, reflecting our view of Adyen’s strong growth profile ahead. Toward the end of our explicit forecast period of 10 years, our valuation implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of 18, which is roughly in line with software-as-a-service companies we cover. We think SaaS companies are a better comparison to Adyen given similar growth profiles and scalability of their business models versus the traditional payment service providers. Even given our bullish stance on the company’s prospects, shares are rich at current levels.