Petrobras Earnings: Payouts Fall With Earnings, in Line With Stated Policy

No-moat Petrobras reported recurring adjusted EBITDA fell to BRL 61.5 billion from BRL 75.6 billion the year before largely on weaker refining results and higher foreign-exchange losses. Production during the quarter fell to 2.78 million barrels of oil equivalent per day from 2.94 mmboe/d in the fourth quarter due to stoppages and planned maintenance but was higher than the 2.68 mmboe/d in the first quarter last year. We see no impact to Petrobras’ longer-term production targets. Our fair value estimate is unchanged.