Elon Musk says humans could soon be heading to Mars. This former astronaut begs to differ.

By James Rogers

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has laid out an ambitious timeline for uncrewed and crewed missions to Mars.

SpaceX Chief Executive Elon Musk is no stranger to big pronouncements, but his latest are among his most ambitious.

The private space company is in the midst of preparing its Starship rocket and spacecraft for its flight test, and Musk has Mars firmly in his sights.

SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years, according to the CEO. "If those all land safely, then crewed missions are possible in four years. If we encounter challenges, then the crewed missions will be postponed another two years," he wrote Sunday in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

In June, SpaceX completed its fourth Starship flight test. The uncrewed spacecraft reached space and, for the first time, completed a "soft splashdown" in the Indian Ocean.

Related: SpaceX notches another win as Polaris Dawn crew completes first commercial spacewalk

Starship is designed to play a key role in returning humans to the moon as part of NASA's Artemis program, as well as in future Mars exploration. The spacecraft and rocket - collectively referred to as "Starship" and designed to carry both crew and cargo - can carry up to 150 metric tons fully reusable and 250 metric tons expendable, according to SpaceX.

Former NASA astronaut and Space Shuttle commander Eileen Collins is skeptical about Musk's timeline for crewed Mars missions. "There is no way a human will be going to Mars in that timeframe," she told MarketWatch in an email. "Although I think he could launch unmanned Starships to Mars in his timeframe."

People will not be able to survive a trip to Mars in Musk's timeframe, added Collins, who wrote, "Through the Glass Ceiling to the Stars: The Story of the First American Woman to Command a Space Mission." "There are WAY too many risks to humans on that journey," she explained. "The total trip time is a minimum of 6 months when the planets are aligned. Radiation sickness is a serious concern. Unless he has a way to shield the Starships, and that is very expensive and heavy."

Collins said that, while needed supplies could probably fit in the other Starships, humans will need to know how to live off the surface of Mars. "How to grow food, get water, get oxygen, clean out their CO2, and keep busy with meaningful work," she added. "I could go on and on."

Related: These space stocks deserve attention, analysts say

The former astronaut also brought up Musk's history of calling for highly ambitious timelines. "I admire his energy, focus, speed, and success with the Falcon/Dragon assembly and operations," she told MarketWatch. "I should say I agree with his rationale, ie the human race needs to get off planet Earth to survive long-term."

"While unattainable, his timelines get people excited, which might be his goal," Collins added. "In my opinion, I wish he was right, but the reality is that Mars travel, for people, is very risky right now and all the risks are not controlled enough (yet) to allow safe travel in four years."

SpaceX has certainly built up to an impressive cadence of space launches and continues to hit new milestones. The launch of the European Space Agency's Galileo-L13 mission atop a Falcon 9 rocket on Sept. 18 was SpaceX's 90th operational mission of 2024 and its 385th to date. The first launch of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket was in 2010.

Earlier this month the private SpaceX Polaris Dawn mission made history when its crew carried out the first-ever commercial spacewalk. NASA has also opted to return astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams from the International Space Station aboard a SpaceX capsule after the Boeing Co.'s (BA) Starliner spacecraft that took them to the orbiting space lab was dogged with technical issues.

Related: Elon Musk hails 'epic' SpaceX Starship test flight as spacecraft makes Indian Ocean splashdown

SpaceX has also pioneered reusable rocket technology. The Galileo-L13 mission marked the 22nd flight of the Falcon 9 booster that supported the launch.

With regard to Mars exploration, Collins said that private companies are in an advantageous position compared to a traditional government-only NASA mission. "I believe that a private company can do it way faster," she told MarketWatch. "Because NASA cannot raise money, or advertise to raise money, private companies owning and operating the equipment is essential to execute these missions in any reasonable timeframe."

"There is not enough money in the NASA budget now or in the future to fly a NASA-only mission," Collins added. "A public-private partnership with a company like SpaceX, and others, with NASA, is looking like the ideal model, especially if we want to beat China to Mars."

Starship's fifth flight test is pending regulatory approval, according to the private space company. The rocket and spacecraft will launch from the company's Starbase facility in Texas.

Related: Elon Musk denies report SpaceX may sell some of its shares amid $200 billion valuation

"One of my biggest concerns right now is that the Starship program is being smothered by a mountain of government bureaucracy that grows every year," Musk wrote Sunday.

SpaceX is also planning to use mechanical arms dubbed "chopsticks" on the Starbase launch tower to catch the Super Heavy booster used for the Starship flight test.

-James Rogers

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

09-24-24 1508ET

Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.