Eli Lilly's Mounjaro cuts risk of developing Type 2 diabetes, study finds

By Eleanor Laise

Data boost the case for Mounjaro and Zepbound as preventive treatments, analysts say

Eli Lilly & Co.'s stock (LLY) gained more than 2% on Tuesday after the drugmaker said that tirzepatide, marketed as the diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight-loss treatment Zepbound, sharply cut patients' risk of developing Type 2 diabetes in a late-stage trial.

The risk of progression to Type 2 diabetes among adults with pre-diabetes and obesity or overweight who took the medication dropped 94%, compared with placebo, Lilly said in a release. Patients taking the highest dose of tirzepatide lost an average of 22.9% of their body weight by the end of the treatment period, which spanned more than three years, compared with 2.1% for placebo.

"We just don't see numbers like this" among metabolic drugs, BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan David Seigerman wrote in a research note Tuesday, referring to the study's diabetes risk reduction results. The data bolster the case for the long-term benefits of tirzepatide, independent of weight loss, Seigerman wrote, which may be key to insurance coverage and uptake of the drug.

The Mounjaro data also compare favorably with a Novo Nordisk (NVO) trial of semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy, which found the drug cut the risk of developing diabetes by 73%, Seigerman noted.

The news weighed heavily on stocks of diabetes device makers Tuesday. Shares of Dexcom Inc. (DXCM), Insulet Corp. (PODD), and Tandem Diabetes Care Inc. (TNDM) were all down about 6% Tuesday afternoon.

The tirzepatide findings "reinforce the potential clinical benefits of long-term therapy for people living with obesity and pre-diabetes," Jeff Emmick, Lilly's senior vice president of product development, said in a statement.

During a 17-week follow-up period, patients who had stopped taking tirzepatide started to regain weight and had some increase in progression to type 2 diabetes, Lilly said.

Side effects were similar to those found in previous tirzepatide studies, Lilly said, with the most frequent being mild to moderate gastrointestinal issues.

The study, the longest completed tirzepatide trial to date, builds on other recent positive trial results for the drug. Lilly said early this month that a late-stage trial found that tirzepatide demonstrated significant benefits for adults with heart failure and obesity.

Lilly's stock has gained more than 61% in the year to date, while the S&P 500 SPX is up 17.3%.

-Eleanor Laise

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08-20-24 1314ET

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