Treasury Yields Edge Up Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data

By Emese Bartha

Treasury yields rose marginally in Asian trade on Tuesday as investors await U.S. consumer-price inflation data for October.

The data, due for release at 1330 GMT, is watched for signs of acceleration and for any hints of widening inflationary pressure in the economy.

The two-year Treasury yield increased 0.6 basis point to 4.552%, while the 10-year yield rose 0.8 basis point to 4.869%, according to Tradeweb.

"In the wake of a blowout jobs report and other signs of a resilient economy, the Federal Reserve is going to have little patience with inflation," said BeiChen Lin, senior investment strategist at Russell Investments, in a note. "Even a minor surprise could seal the deal on a December hike," he said.

Analysts in a Wall Street Journal poll forecast the consumer-price index to have risen 0.3% from the prior month, down from a 0.6% rise in September. They expect core CPI, which strips volatile items such as food and energy, to rise 0.2% versus 0.3% previously.

"In addition to the main inflation numbers, another key focal point will be the breadth of inflationary pressures," Lin said, adding that this will play a key role in determining the path of future monetary policy decisions.

Money markets currently price in an 84% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December, according to LSEG.

"Today's data should confirm that the underlying dynamics remain above the Fed's target," said Christoph Rieger, head of rates and credit research at Commerzbank, in a note.

The Treasury's $42 billion auction of new 10-year notes will be another event to watch Tuesday.

Write to Emese Bartha at emese.bartha@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 10, 2026 02:15 ET (07:15 GMT)