EMEA Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Lower as Tech Jitters Persist

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Opening Call:

European stock futures fell early Tuesday. Asian stock benchmarks declined; the dollar was little changed, Treasury yields edged lower; while oil futures rebounded and gold fell.

Equities:

Stock futures point to a lower open in European markets on Tuesday, as the debate between bulls and bears about a potential AI bubble continued.

"The market hasn't lost faith in AI, but it's losing patience with companies spending extraordinary sums without delivering returns that exceed already lofty expectations," said Pepperstone's Chris Weston.

Adding to trepidation around the AI trade was uncertainty ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.

Forex:

The dollar struggled to capture renewed risk aversion as investors stayed cautious ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, said DBS's Philip Wee, adding that hope for easing oil supply disruptions drove Treasury yields lower, eroding support for the greenback.

"This week's events could prompt the DXY to extend its retracement of the 4.5% rally," Wee said.

Bonds:

A Democratic sweep in the midterm elections could curb the selloff in U.S. Treasurys but probably wouldn't fully reverse the rise in yields, said Ebury market analyst Diego Barnuevo. The Iran war has added an inflationary risk premium across the yield curve.

Meanwhile, inflation expectations remain elevated and corporate bond issuance to fund AI investment is adding to supply. A Democratic sweep would be neutral to mildly positive for the fiscal outlook, Barnuevo added.

"Congress could restrain Trump's expansionary agenda and, with it, the deficit."

Energy:

Oil prices advanced in Asia after sliding overnight amid hopes for U.S.-Iranian negotiations.

ANZ said the oil market is wary of "stop-and-go diplomatic efforts that haven't delivered peace, with the two adversaries yet to agree on terms for fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Metals:

Gold fell in Asia after rising nearly 2% overnight.

ING expects the precious metal to regain some ground following a recent correction, but said "the near-term outlook remains challenging amid expectations for higher rates and a stronger dollar, limiting the scope for a more sustained recovery."

The base metal complex had rallied overnight, led by copper, as energy markets slumped, said ANZ. Lower energy prices ease concerns of weaker economic growth, the bank added.

Iron ore prices declined in Asia, weighed down by persistent supply overhang and weakening steel demand in China, said Anchof Futures.

Demand remains sluggish as steelmakers face mounting losses and curb restocking. Port inventories are accumulating, while mills show limited appetite for further stockpiling following pre-holiday replenishment, the brokerage added. Elevated inventories are likely to cap price rebounds.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

America's Multi-Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout Is on the Ballot-and Wall Street Is Watching

For Wall Street, the highest stakes in this year's Election Day are at the lower levels of government.

Investors are closely watching Tuesday's state races for what their outcomes will mean for data-center projects crucial to the AI build-out. And while voters will determine which party controls Congress next year, it is the governor's races in Texas, Ohio and Georgia-and the dozens of local referendums on data centers that will appear on ballots-that are just as likely to upend the AI trade and the stock market as a whole.

The bond-market rally is defying the typical investing playbook. Here's why.

The U.S. economy expanded at its fastest clip in more than five years during the third quarter, according to the Commerce Department's initial reading on third-quarter gross domestic product. Yet despite a barrage of robust data, Treasury bonds staged a surprise rally in October.

That shift caught market watchers off guard. Throughout August and September, surging Treasury yields weighed on virtually every corner of the market except technology. Investors again treated tech as a safe haven, on the view that the artificial-intelligence buildout could weather higher capital costs. As a result, technology was the only one of the S&P 500's SPX 11 sectors to finish September in the green.

U.S. Strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as Trump Talks Down War Risks

The U.S. attacked Iran's Qeshm Island on Monday, U.S. officials said, in the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against the country in recent weeks as President Trump touted the possibility of a diplomatic deal.

The assault follows comments by Trump playing down the possibility of a return to war with Iran after Tuesday's midterm elections.

Apple's Growth Machine Is Slowing. High Prices Might Not Save It.

The Apple growth and profit machine is wavering, and the boost from price increases might not be enough to keep it going at historic rates. That dials up the pressure on Apple's new chief executive, John Ternus.

The company saved the bad news for its earnings call, an hour after it posted its results for the September quarter, projecting that for the current quarter its high-margin services business will continue to slow and that its widely watched gross profit margin will continue to fall.

Anthropic Investors Push for Cautious Valuation Closer to $1.5 Trillion

The rout in technology stocks last week has big investors who plan to participate in Anthropic's IPO coalescing around a lower valuation for the artificial-intelligence giant.

In the past several days, institutional investors told the Claude maker and its advisers that the company's valuation in its planned initial public offering later this month should be around $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion, according to people familiar with the matter, well below figures closer to $2 trillion that had been bandied about in recent months.

Palantir Profit Soars as U.S. Commercial Revenue Overtakes Government Business

Palantir's revenue surged in its most recent quarter as the company said businesses are increasingly turning away from artificial-intelligence labs and seeking to more fully control their use of the technology.

The company, which makes bespoke data management and analysis software for businesses and governments, on Monday reported 96% revenue growth to $2.31 billion, beating Wall Street's expectation for $2.18 billion.

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Expected Major Events for Tuesday 07:00/TUR: Oct CPI

07:00/TUR: Oct PPI

07:00/ROM: Sep PPI

07:30/SWI: Oct CPI

08:30/EU: Oct EuroCOIN indicator of euro area economic activity

15:59/UKR: Sep Industrial Production

16:00/DEN: Oct Foreign Exchange & Liquidity

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November 03, 2026 00:16 ET (05:16 GMT)

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