Corn Futures Rise on World Volatility — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

-- Corn for December delivery rose 2.8% to $4.13 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, rising on short covering as risk factors for commodity prices around the world continue to grow.

-- Soybeans for November delivery rose 2.7% to $10.40 a bushel.

-- Wheat for December delivery rose 2.3% to $5.81 1/2 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Risk Factors: CBOT futures rose throughout the day, driven by heightened fighting in the conflicts in Lebanon and the Black Sea, while in the U.S. an influx of rainfall that is expected to slow harvest progress. Traders are expecting this afternoon's crop progress report to show a slight decline in crop conditions, said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage, which is providing support for futures.

However, that support may be limited, Pfitzenmaier said in a note.

"It is going to be hard for rallies to go too far as harvest picks up," he said.

Heated Prelude: The conditions in which the winter wheat crop is being planted in the U.S. have some analysts thinking that this year's crop will be weaker than initially expected.

"Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for the best wheat development are still around as the winter crop gets planted," said Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group in a note.

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center says that heat will be above normal in the Plains, leaving plants there parched over the next eight to 14 days.

INSIGHT

Mixed Messages: Export inspections of U.S. corn and wheat fell from last week, the USDA said.

Corn inspections totaled 521,118 metric tons for the week ended Sept. 12, and wheat inspections totaled 556,901 tons. Both were down from last week's figures, although in the case of wheat higher from this time last year.

To date, inspections of wheat shipments for the 2024-25 marketing year are ahead of their pace last year, totaling 6.9 million tons, versus 5.2 million tons at this point last year, a 34% uptick.

Corn and soybean inspections are behind their pace from last year, with corn off 24% at 992,629 tons and soybeans off 16% at 674,581 tons.

Out of the Gate: The USDA announced a fresh flash sale of soybeans to start the week, with 165,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024-25 marketing year. "Unknown destinations" is often considered to be China by the market, although not a certainty.

Recent strength in export sales has been a factor supporting CBOT soybean futures, Argus said in a note. "Unlike wheat and corn, weekly U.S. soybean export sales came out above expectations last Thursday, which provides support for this market," the firm said.

Price Pain: Farmers in Kansas are in the process of harvesting their crops, with the corn harvest mostly underway and the soybean harvest for many farmers soon to begin.

Areas of Kansas had a period of not receiving rain this summer, but for the most part are in good condition.

Farmers are happy about the size of their crops, but current prices are too low to make a profit, the Kansas Farm Bureau said in a note.

"Prices are a little rough right now," says Nick Peters, a farmer in Marion County, Kan., quoted in the note.

AHEAD

-- The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.

-- The USDA is due to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday.

-- The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly Cold Storage Report at 3 p.m. EDT Thursday.

-- The USDA is due to release its quarterly hogs and pigs report at 3 p.m. EDT Thursday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 23, 2024 15:41 ET (19:41 GMT)

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